After much speculation of the striker’s future at Atlanta, he was reportedly told he’s no longer a part of the club’s plans. His stats haven’t been terrible this season, he actually has 0.8 goals+assists/90, but he spent much of the year not being a productive player and only started to look like a player worthy of occupying a DP spot in the final stretch of the season (in the last 10 games, he had 5 goals and assists, or roughly 1.28 goals+assists per 90, which is better than every MVP finalist this year). If he leaves, he would leave an open DP spot for a team that desperately needs a clinical #9, which begs the question: Who should replace Josef Martinez?
Chimy Avila- Osasuna
Chimy scored a brace yesterday, making his season total 0.79 goals/90. I wrote the article before today (Saturday the 5th) but had to come in and update it for Chimy’s brace. Anyways, here’s the rest of the bit about Chimy, written before today:
The former Barcelona target’s starts aren’t the most impressive. He only has 4 goals and an assist on the season and finished last year with just 6. However, he also has only had 8.9 xG in those two seasons, and is playing in a harder league than MLS. In fact, in all of his time in Spain’s first division he has about 0.4 goals per 90, which is better than Carlos Vela, the current most MLS Single Season Goals record holder’s 0.37 goals per 90 in his time with Real Sociedad.
The Argentine can play both on the wing and as a striker. He has the pace, the fire and the swagger that drew Atlanta fans to Josef. If the club wants to move forward but stay true to their roots, Avila would be a perfect signing. He’s currently valued at $11M, which is well within the front office’s budget, and, with the recruiting capabilities of MLS at this point, he’s not an unrealistic signing at all.
Alfredo Morelos- Rangers
Morelos has 3 goals and an assist in nine games this season, none of which he started in, which total up to a goal every 58 minutes. He’s done very well with Rangers, scoring double digit goals in every one of his six seasons. He has about 0.59 goals per 90 in his time with Rangers. If he were to keep this up in MLS, which he very well could given that, per Globalfootballrankings.com, the Scottish league’s average SPI is about 96% that of MLS, assuming he plays 2,700 minutes, he’d get 17.7 goals, which isn’t amazing but is by no stretch of the imagination bad.
The Colombian is a passionate striker, though he could be described as a hothead he has 8 red cards. Regardless, the stars seem to have aligned for the Five Stripes to sign El Bufalo should they choose. He’s worth $14.3M, hasn’t started all year and hasn’t gotten a call up to the Colombian national team since July of 2021. He could be looking for a change of scenery or a new chance to prove himself, and Atlanta United could be perfect for this.
Henry Martin- Club America
If I had said this a year ago everybody reading this who’d heard of him would’ve thought I was kidding. In 2021/2022, he scored 5 goals in 28 games. However, this season, he’s broken out at the young age of… 29. In 17 games, he’s scored 10 goals and had 5 assists in a league of a similar quality to MLS.
The Mexican could be a risky buy. There’s always a risk that his form returns to what it’s been for most of his career which is, to say the least, not fit for the man leading Atlanta United’s forward line given that he’s only scored more than 10 goals in one season once (2020/2021). Given his good form, there’s also the issue of him likely returning to America. Still, if he keeps up this form, he’d be a very good buy.
Ezequiel Ponce- Elche
Ponce’s stats at Elche may be worrisome given that he has 3 goals in 25 games at the Spanish club, but looking at his stats throughout his recent career, it’s not that bad. He has about 0.40 goals per 90 in his time in Russia and Spain, and, excluding his first season at Elche which was noticeably worse than other recent seasons, he has 0.44 goals per 90 in Russia and Spain. This is still a bit concerning, but, per globalfootballrankings.com, both leagues are better than MLS.
One still may worry about his poor goal scoring stats, but he’s a very good player and is a realistic signing. He’s only 25 and is a quick forward. He’s also worth just $5.5M and is clearly very inexpensive. His lack of starts with Elche (only 9 out of his 23 games with Elche were starts) may also lead him to seek a starting role at a big club- something Atlanta absolutely provides.
Miguel Borja- River Plate
In 981 minutes for River this season, Borja has 9 goals and an assist, adding up to 0.91 goals+assists/90 in a league of a similar quality to MLS. If he did that in 2,700 minutes in MLS,he’d score 27 goals. He’s scoring a goal every 109 minutes. Atlanta need the kind of striker who will get a goal virtually every game, and Miguel Borja seems to have that quality. In fairness, his goals were largely lumped into similar games. Still, River did not have a great season and, given the production, Borja will score.
There is some concern about Borja’s likelihood of signing. He just signed with one of the biggest clubs in the Americas less than 6 months ago. Despite this, given his history, there’s a chance. He has switched clubs after a short period there on numerous occasions—He went to Junior FC on a half a season loan, went back to his club of Palmeiras briefly, went on a four month loan at Gremio, and then went to Junior FC permanently only to leave half a year later for River. However, he may now want some stability, and where better to get stability than at such a big club like River? It would be a tough move, but it’s a possibility.
Gabriel “Gabigol” Barbosa- Flamengo
Gabigol is the best striker in the Americas. He has 0.72 goals per 90 in all of his time at Flamengo. If he played 2,700 minutes (30 90s) with those stats, he’d have 21.6 goals. In Brazil. The best league in the Americas. That’s also playing less minutes than Josef Martinez did in 2018. You know you’re a phenomenal player when your worst season in five years is 11 goals and an assist in 21.2 90s in Brazil. He’s also only 26 years old and will just keep improving.
This would be one of the best signings in MLS history. The only problem is that it’s not too likely. Not only is his value more than $10M more than the most expensive signing in MLS history, but most would make the bet that if he were to leave Flamengo he would almost certainly find himself in Europe. He also just won Copa Libertadores with Flamengo where he scored. He does have two Copa Libertadores’, two Supercopa Do Brasils, and two Brazilian championships. He’s already proved himself in Brazil plenty, and it’s not looking too likely that he’ll make the Brazilian world cup squad. Maybe he wants to go elsewhere to prove his worth. This seems to not be likely, but, if anybody can do it, it’s the club that bought Pity Martinez, Ezequiel Barco and Thiago Almada.
Pedro- Flamengo
Another Flamengo striker, once again highly unlikely. Pedro has a goal every 106 minutes in Brazil, as well as 3 assists on the season. The previous year he had 12 goals and assists in 1408 minutes in Brazil as well. Leading one of the best teams in South America in goals+assists per 90 with 1.04 is not a small feat.
Pedro is a phenom and would instantly be one of the best players in MLS. I’d even say he’s more likely to come to MLS than Gabigol. He’s worth just $13.2M so a transfer for him would be well within the Five Stripe’s budget. I think he’s another guy who, if he were to leave Flamengo, would make a move to Europe, but I don’t think this is impossible to get done.
Rony- Palmeiras
Yet another striker playing in Brazil, I think Rony is far more likely than either of the Flamengo #9s. He was actually linked to Atlanta in May of last year, where the front office had supposedly offered $15M for the Brazilian. He has 12 goals this season in 2151 minutes, or 0.5 goals per 90. This is better than his previous two seasons with Palmerias (0.22 and 0.35 goals per 90). While the aforementioned seasons were not amazing, given his good numbers this year and the quality of the Brazilian league, it’s not something to laugh at.
As I mentioned before, Atlanta reportedly offered $15M in May of last year for Rony, though his current market value is $9.9M. This is a far more realistic signing than Gabigol and Pedro, and he’s not a bad player by any means. He’s scored goals at a higher level than MLS and he’d be very inexpensive, at least for Atlanta. He’s in the middle of his prime as well.
Enner Valencia- Fenerbahce
The oldest player on this list, Enner Valencia’s age is a worry. He’s 32 years old and isn’t getting any younger. Despite this, the Ecuadorian has 11 goals and 4 assists in just 10 games, in Turkey. Last season he finished with 13 goals and assists in 1086 minutes, or 1.08 goals+assists per 90, and the previous year he had 12 goals and 4 assists for 0.58 goals+assists per 90. He’s been better this season and last than the rest of his career, which maybe indicates that he’s in his prime right now.
He’s not an expensive striker— his market value is just $3.3M. He also is out of contract next summer. I wouldn’t suggest we wait until summer to sign a striker but if we want to pinch our pennies we could. The Ecuadorian international is an inexpensive striker who’s had the best stats of his life recently in a league that’s a similar level to MLS. I wouldn’t mind him at all.
Chicho Arango- LAFC
The only MLS player on this list is arguably the best striker in MLS. He was a finalist for the MVP award. He has 0.77 goals+assists per 90 this season and had 1.03 last season. He’s already racked up 30 goals in just 51 regular season games with LAFC, 8 of which he came off the bench. He also has started and scored in both of LAFC’s playoff games this season, and started in MLS Cup on Saturday.
Arango would be a very good signing for Atlanta. There was talk of him leaving LAFC in the summer, and LAFC could still be looking to drop him. It’s difficult to find when his contract is expiring as it appears to not be public knowledge (we know it’s not this winter as he wasn’t on the MLSPA 2023 free agents list), but, if it’s expiring soon, LAFC could be looking to get something for him as his production is more than good enough to be making DP money (he currently makes less than $700k) and they likely don’t want to have to move a DP (they’re also likely out of or running very low on TAM given their summer signings of Chielini and also Gareth Bale, who’s salary states that he will be a DP in the future should LAFC pick up his option in the summer). Of course, there’s the possibility Atlanta could sign him on a non-DP deal like he already has as well, just on an increased salary, which would be ideal, but if Boca offered him the big bucks, Arango could well be an Atlanta United player come 2023.
Honorable Mentions
Yuri Alberto (Corinthians), Borja Iglesias (Real Betis), Antonio Sanabria (Torino), Luis Suarez (Marseille), Juan Dinneno (Pumas)
Final Thoughts
If I could pick, I’d take Gabigol. He’s clearly the best of the bunch. Both he and Pedro would be massive signings, though nowhere near impossible, but, if we’re looking for something a little more practical, I’d be banking on Enner Valencia, Chimy Avila or Alfredo Morelos. Most players on this list would be fine, however. Let’s just hope we don’t get JJ Macias.
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