They have to fall off at some point, right?
Due to the extreme amount of minutes that Lionel Messi has played in the last few months for his new club coupled with his lack of a full offseason, resting him will have to be on Tata’s mind, right? By the time of Miami’s fixture in Atlanta (assuming he plays a large portion of Argentina’s game against Bolivia), the man who has been more essential to Miami’s recent success than anyone else will, hopefully, be spending some time on the bench. Simultaneously, beating a Messi-less Miami in a packed Mercedes-Benz Stadium seems far more reasonable than the expectation that the Five Stripes stood a chance away six weeks ago without new signings Tristan Muyumba, Saba Lobjanidze and Xande Silva. This is not at all to say that Atlanta will beat Miami, but rather a reason for fans to be more hopeful than they were on July 25th - the last time the two teams faced off.
Many of the things that were integral parts of Miami’s last win will have changed by the time September 16th rolls around, not the least of which being playing at home, three new signings, and an actually functional version of Matheus Rossetto. While the atmosphere of Mercedes-Benz Stadium may not impact seasoned veterans like Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba or former Atlanta coach Tata Martino, “home-field advantage” may creep into the minds of less experienced players who still play significant roles for Inter Miami. This, in tandem with Messi’s hopeful absence could give Atlanta a leg up that no other team has had on Miami thus far - something that, once again, gives fans yet another reason to be optimistic. Saba and Xande Silva also appear to be meshing well with the squad, and since both have offered glimpses of the flair that Atlanta had hoped to acquire with Luiz Araujo, the team will have two additional difference-making weapons come the 25th. This is not to say that either player is anywhere near Messi’s quality, but it is undeniable that the Five Stripes look a much more complete side than they were before they arrived. The impact of attacking threat coming from players other than Thiago Almada and Giorgos Giakoumakis should not be underestimated, and Silva and Saba both seem to offer it from wide areas. Having only one player (Thiago Almada) to shut down was crucial to Miami’s last win, so dealing with a little more flair could go a long way with regards to how well they are able to control the game. Another key reason Atlanta lost last time was the glaring difference in midfield quality between the two teams; the presence of Tristan Muyumba will by no means bridge that gap, but rather provide more of a level playing field. If Matheus Rossetto can also show the same quality that he has in recent matches, the Five Stripes could have a solid chance of, at the very least, being more competitive against Miami than they were the last time out. In short, ideally, Atlanta would be behind a home crowd, at full strength and in good form whilst Miami would lack their biggest attacking threat in the form of Lionel Messi - none of these things were the case the last time out.
Unfortunately, it is also worth noting that without Messi, Miami are more than capable of beating anyone in MLS at the moment. Alone, the presence of Busquets, Jordi Alba, an in-form Robert Taylor and new U22 signing Facundo Farias, could be more than enough to overpower Atlanta. Even with the international break, Miami’s form should not be underestimated, and the potential discrepancy in coaching quality between Gonzalo Pineda and Tata will likely also contribute to the gap between the two teams. Miami are a good team now: the absence of their best player may hinder their quality, but will not make them incapable of beating Atlanta by any means. There is, of course, also the chance that nothing listed in the paragraph above will change anything about the match. Given the inconsistency of Atlanta United in recent years, it is not at all impossible for the side to spontaneously dip into a poor run of form in an important part of the season. This, coupled with Miami’s top form could mean that they are in pole position to push Atlanta right back into the same perpetual cycle of up-and-down that has plagued the team for the last three seasons. I hate to end this article on a negative note, and there is good reason to be optimistic about both the next fixture and the coming weeks, but Atlanta has shown a tendency to fail to hold good form. Simultaneously, this article has been written almost entirely under the prediction that Messi is benched; if that does not happen, almost every advantage I had previously described would be practically inert. Atlanta’s potential home field advantage could shift towards Miami in an instant if Messi touches the field, and even if he doesn’t start, the possibility of having to plan for him coming off the bench is more than a formidable challenge for Gonzalo Pineda. Even with Muyumba, Saba, and Lobjanidze, no team in the MLS (let alone Atlanta) is better pound-for-pound than a Miami side that includes the best player of all time. For this reason, any positivity should be cautious, but I do believe that the team has a better chance at beating Miami than anyone else has since Messi arrived. With that being said, my predicted starting XIs:
Xande Silva returns to an eleven that excluded him last time out, whilst the rest of the lineup remains largely unchanged with the exception of the inclusions of Rosetto and Muyumba. Giakoumakis and Almada hopefully slot right back in after returning from international duty
Martinez starts with Robert Taylor available off the bench, whilst the lineup remains relatively unchanged otherwise. Drake Callendar will likely not play for the USMNT during the international break, so he should be clear to slot back in - the same goes for Yedlin and Cremaschi. Then, of course, Messi remains available as the super-sub to end all super-subs
written by @plzsignTitoBoca on twitter
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